In retrospect, the middle third of the 21^st century presented a unique moment in human history. Despite the collapse of the global order of the preceding 150 years and the ensuing chaos and conflict, culminating in the first multilateral exchange of nuclear weapons of the Fast War, subsequent events and their outcomes demonstrate that processes were in motion that almost certainly would have precluded escalatory outcomes beyond what was experienced. The phase transition in human affairs was well underway long before becoming manifest in daily events. – Excerpt from “Inflection Points: 21^st Century Geopolitics Reconsidered”

“What do you mean, ‘lost control’?”

Deputy National Security Advisor Christine Bilyk stared across the table in disbelief at her military counterpart.

General Clark Jamison maintained the grim, neutral pose of someone used to delivering bad news. The Vice Chair of the Joint Chiefs was a frequent partner of Christine’s when things went sideways.

“Communications were severed, and the control systems did not respond. We are now running integrity checks to ensure nothing was compromised. So far, all the systems for the involved Missile Alert Facility appear intact and operational.”

“And the weapons?”

“No activity.”

“How many?”

“Ordinarily, this location controls ten launch facilities, but three are in rotation for maintenance. So, seven.”

“We lost control of seven ICBMs. For how long?”

Jamison shifted in his seat and cleared his throat. “Almost twelve hours.”

Christine cursed to herself, took a deep breath, then sat back in her chair. “And we’re hearing about this only now because…?”

Jamison cleared his throat again. “The initial assumption was a malfunction and the troubleshooting teams ran the usual protocols. As the problem escalated, there were, uh, communication issues. It’s being reviewed.”

“Any indication there’s any connection to the other cyberintrusions? Or the Kansk incident?”

Jamison immediately shook his head, but Christine could see doubt in his eyes. The mysterious nuclear detonation last year of a Soviet era ICBM in the former Russian territory further destabilized the precarious fragility of relations between the fourteen known nuclear powers. Since the Fast War, the Chinese leadership of the International Nuclear Oversight program kept everyone talking and sharing information. Despite the eventual Ruthenian Confederacy admission and insistence the explosion was “a maintenance issue,” American intelligence entertained different explanations. For the RC to publicly assert the embarrassment of incompetence indicated the truth was something worse. The European Defense Forces were keeping their own counsel, as usual.

“Are the Canadians aware?”

“So far, no. Both EDF bases are quiet.”

“And the Entity?”

“Still cooperating, although there is conflicting data. Contacts across multiple agencies report variations, something we haven’t experienced before. We’re working with your office to run that down.”

As the lead on the NSC’s Emerging Global Threats desk, most communications and inquiries about the behavior and activities of the groupmind referred to as the Entity typically passed through Christine’s people. Within government agencies, the usage of ‘Entity’ had superseded ‘Homo Iunctus’, what they called themselves.

“Have you notified the INO?”

“Not formally. I had a brief conversation with General Liu and we’re having conversations at multiple levels with our PLA contacts.” 

“Good. Theories?”

“It appears the involved MAF went into lockdown in preparation for launch early yesterday.  Somehow, they received the initial encrypted notifications, but they didn’t come from STRATCOM or the NMCC. We became aware when the other four facilities in the squadron lost comms.”

“Someone was inside the perimeter of the NC3 networks?”

“We’re still resolving that. The hard lines and wireless relays are all being checked. That’s a lot of towers, and about a thousand miles of fiber to be physically inspected.”

“How long will that take?”

“Definitely days, maybe weeks.”

“The onsite team is being debriefed? Any possibility there were issues in the bunker?”

“So far, no indications of treason or erratic behavior. They are all in isolation undergoing evaluation and interrogation. We are repeating and extending deep background checks for all involved personnel. So far, nothing.”

“So just a single bunker? They couldn’t have launched?”

Jamison cleared his throat again and shifted in his chair. Christine suppressed irritation at the habit because she knew the general’s tells well enough that the throat clearing presaged more difficult news. She held her breath.

“Since we don’t know how the initial comms intrusion occurred, we can’t know what else has been corrupted or spoofed. The crew in the affected MAF says they received notification that two of the other four bunkers were also activated.”

Christine leaned forward. “So not only were the enable codes spoofed to the MAF, but they also were deceived about the status of the rest of the squadron?”

Jamison nodded.

“And the launch codes?”

Jamison hesitated. “We’re working on that.”

“What does that mean?”

The general pursed his lips. “The quantum encryption protocols for communication with the MAF and initiating launch procedures are the same as the actual launch codes. It is possible, though not plausible, if one was compromised, the other may be as well. We’re having some interagency issues running that to ground.”

Christine slapped the table.

“Goddamit, Clark! At any time, could they have launched?”

“No, ma’am.”

“Were Broken Arrow protocols activated?”

“Not officially.”

“Then do it.”

“But…”

“Has the President been briefed?” Christine interrupted.

“That’s why we’re having this conversation.”

“Why the delay?”

“The initial response was to a comms failure. The exact nature only gradually came to light. It was all complicated by the lockdown in the MAF. Everything is back online and secure. Whatever it was, it’s over.”

A non-answer. It’s going to be me bringing it.

“Review Fail Safe contingencies.  The President will want to see them, the sooner the better. Who is handling the threat assessment?”

“Air Force Missile Security escalated to the DIA under the initial assumption this was foreign actors.”

“Which you think may not be correct.”

He nodded. “That is why my leadership wants your team involved.”

“The Entity?”

“By process of elimination. With the intrusions in the civilian sector and the lack of plausible alternatives for this situation, we need answers fast. Some one or thing is into a lot of different systems.”

“Won’t CISA try to exert control over this investigation if that is true?”

General Jamison allowed himself a small knowing smile. “Not if you are there first.”

Christine nodded, ignoring the compliment. “DHS has its hands full with the domestic counterterror mission since the FBI mess. So you want me to keep it out of the interagency scrum.” General Jamison remained silent. Christine needed time to think. “Get me briefing drafts within the next few hours. I need to get time with the President.”

General Jamison departed, leaving Christine to stare at the blank walls of the SCIF adjacent to the Situation Room deep beneath the White House.

Someone must suspect the Entity is involved somehow, which is why this came to her. The comms breakdowns will be someone else’s problem. Her staff didn’t appear to know the nature of the inquiries they’d been fielding the last forty-eight hours, otherwise Sahar would have looped her in. Once again, a complex mess landing squarely in her lap. It was almost a relief.

The incompetence, inefficiency, and interagency competition wasn’t new. The added complication of treason and foreign influence deep inside multiple agencies was newer and ongoing, a rotating mess since the collapse that started in the twenties, culminating in the attempted secession, then the Fast War.

The American military and intelligence communities still struggled with the new realities of the international order since the Fast War. Despite bruised American egos and the incessant bleating of posturing politicians, the Chinese were now unambiguously at least co-equal partners in global affairs. Their leadership of the AI treaties and international nuclear weapons programs monitoring was as much due to lack of confidence in American leadership as their own ambitions.

The other new variable is the role of the Entity in world affairs. Though unproven, the consensus shared across multiple intelligence agencies was that it was the Entity that stopped the nuclear exchange from escalating. Their very public intervention in cleaning up the mess afterward, especially the temporary shutdown of space programs due to the Kessler incident was more widely appreciated.

Despite the recent progress rebuilding both the ruined cities and international alliances since the war, the signs of some new threat were there for almost a year, tormenting and tantalizing, feeding her natural suspicions, worsening her tendency to paranoia. Though her team was the best, hand-picked and highly trained, they remained a small part of the intelligence community and survived despite resource starvation, suspicion, and incessant infighting. Only Christine’s relationships, instincts, and relentless maneuvering kept them in the game of tracking the Entity and preserving the fragile global peace.

The risk of chasing illusions and self-delusion, the seductive lure of complacent situation blindness were a constant, corrosive source of anxiety. It was the kind of problem she loved tackling, but it took a toll and held myriad risks, seen and unseen, political, military, and personal.

Despite the spasm of nuclear proliferation in recent decades and the advent of newer, poorly controlled lethal technologies, nuclear weapons security was still the ultimate stabilizer of world affairs. The chastening effect of lingering radioactive contamination in pockets around the planet continued to restrain the more reckless proliferation, at least for now. The possibility of loose American nukes would be a blow to the President’s credibility and undermine his efforts rebuilding influence and alliances.

She attacked the new puzzle, spinning out models and hypotheses. State or non-state? Criminal, corporate, or both? Motives? Means? Foreign or domestic? Broader impacts? If rogue AIs were involved, it would jeopardize the fragile treaties governing their military use put in place after the Fast War and further inflame the fringe ‘AI emancipation’ movement. The demonstrated effectiveness of both the offensive and defensive AIs during that conflict had since contained at least that aspect of that particular race toward apocalypse, for now.

The rush of adrenalin from tackling a new, complex problem warred with a surging sense of dread about the perils of the situation. It was irresistible no matter how sick it made her feel.

How far does this go?